UFC scouting Report on each Weight Class for 2013

HEAVYWEIGHT: New champion Cain Velasquez is likely to defend the title next against Alistair Overeem, provided Overeem gets licensed and beats Antonio Silva. If Silva wins, then the most likely next title shot would be Junior Dos Santos. The one Strikeforce star the jury is out on is Josh Barnett. White wouldn’t answer the question about Barnett coming in, saying he didn’t know. Indications we were given is that, for a number of reasons having to do with business, it is less than 50%, and maybe way less, but White can always change his mind. If he thinks Barnett is needed for something they want, he’ll be in. If not, there is a mentality of letting him go to Bellator because he’ll win their title, make demands, and in the end, Bellator will be weaker because of it. Time will tell how this plays out. If Stefan Struve beats Mark Hunt in Japan, and Fabricio Werdum beats Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in June in Brazil, one or the other could wind up next in line. While Daniel Cormier figured to come in maybe one fight from a title shot, the belief is with Velasquez as champion, he’ll drop to 205. Velasquez outright said he would never fight Cormier, who was in his corner at the fight and is his main wrestling coach. Cormier told me months ago that if Velasquez wins the title, he would likely drop to 205. White said that Cormier could move to 205 and get the shot at the Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen winner. Cormier over the weekend when asked the question of whether he’ll now move down, just said that some things are better left with a cliffhanger ending.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Jones vs. Sonnen is set for 4/27 in Newark, NJ, as the next title match. White said Cormier could very well face the winner. Others in line would be Glover Teixeira, if he beats Rampage Jackson on 1/28 in Chicago, and the winner of the Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida fight on 2/23 in Anaheim. Because of how the Jones vs. Rashad Evans fight last year went, he’d need a few wins and he’d best be served moving to middleweight where he could be a force because he has drawn some big gates which helps you get main events having that record. Also potentially in the mix would be Gegard Mousasi, who has a strong 32-3-2 record, provided he beats Mike Kyle on 1/12. For Kyle, a loss in that bout and he may be out of a job.

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Anderson Silva will defend against Michael Bisping, provided Bisping beats Vitor Belfort on 1/19 in Sao Paulo. Even though Silva is 37 and has talked retirement, he just this past week signed a new 10-fight contract. Bisping winning is a big if, since Silva has said he thinks Belfort is winning. Dana White told me over the weekend that if Belfort wins, he doesn’t see making that match, at least not now, because of how the first fight went down and is belief Silva won’t want to face Belfort again. At that point, Chris Weidman would be the likely contender unless Evans moves down. The feeling is Weidman has the best chance to beat Silva in the class, but people don’t know him yet and it would be better if he wins a few more fights and makes a name. He’s coming off shoulder surgery and won’t be able to fight for several months. Hector Lombard, having shown his first fight with Tim Boetsch was a fluke, along with Rockhold, coming in as Strikeforce champion, may be on a collision course with whoever emerges being a contender later in the year. Yushin Okami isn’t getting another shot as long as Silva is champion. Other dark horses are Costa Philippou and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.

WELTERWEIGHTS: GSP faces Nick Diaz on 3/16 in Montreal. If Diaz screws up in any form, then Johny Hendricks is right there on the show and will be moved into the title match. If GSP gets hurt, Hendricks vs. Diaz would likely headline. Right now, Hendricks faces Jake Ellenberger, who makes an interesting match-up. Both are wrestlers that like to strike. Ellenberger has knockout power and faster hands. Hendricks has even more knockout power, but not nearly the footwork or speed in his hands. Whoever gets the first big punch can win early so it’s almost a coinflip early. Hendricks does have the stamina edge if nobody ends it in the first round. The GSP vs. Diaz winner is likely to face the Hendricks vs. Ellenberger winner. Another fight, Demian Maia vs. Jon Fitch on 2/2, should create another contender. If Diaz, Hendricks or Ellenberger end up as champion, that opens the door back to the winner of the Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald match on 3/16. Condit isn’t going to get a shot at GSP without several wins. MacDonald and GSP have both said they won’t fight the other. Dark horses are the returning Nate Marquardt, and Siyar Bahadurzada, who faces Dong Hyun Kim on 3/3 in Saitama.

LIGHTWEIGHTS: The deepest division in the sport is likely to have champion Benson Henderson face Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez next. There’s been talk over the past few days it’s being targeted for 4/20 or thereabouts, possibly on FOX. The winner of the Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis fight on 1/26 in Chicago is almost surely next in line. The situation with Eddie Alvarez is uncertain, as it’s up to Bellator to match his offer. The impression we have is UFC did not make that big an offer to Alvarez. Others in the mix, although all would need at least one more impressive win, are Gray Maynard, currently recovering form major knee surgery, Rafael Dos Anjos, T.J. Grant, Jim Miller, Jamie Varner and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Josh Thomson, who many thought beat Melendez in one of this year’s best fights, and has a win over him in the past, also joins UFC in the new year.

FEATHERWEIGHTS: Jose Aldo Jr. vs. Frankie Edgar is the title match on 2/2 in Las Vegas. Because Erik Koch had been slated for the title shot before Edgar, but got hurt, the Koch vs. Ricardo Lamas fight on FOX on 1/26 is likely to determine the next contender. The winner of Dennis Siver vs. Cub Swanson on 2/16 in London would also be in line. Chad Mendes may be the second best guy in the division, but because of how Aldo handled him, he may need a few wins before getting a shot. But if Edgar wins, and Mendes beats Manny Gamburyan on 2/23 in Anaheim, Mendes would be a strong contender. If Nik Lentz beats Diego Nunes on 1/19 in Sao Paulo, he has to be considered. If Clay Guida goes back to having exciting fights and beats Hatsu Hioki on 1/26, he’ll likely need one more win against a winner of one of the above winners. On the injured list right now is Chan Sung Jung, who may be the most popular guy in the division after his win over Dustin Poirier, a solid win in a match of the year candidate that he largely controlled.

BANTAMWEIGHTS: Dominick Cruz is out at least until the end of the year. But he faces the interim champion likely the end of this year or early 2014. For this year, we’ve got interim champion Renan Barao vs. Michael McDonald on 2/16 in London as a Fuel main event. Eddie Wineland, after beating Brad Pickett, puts himself in line for the next shot. If Ivan Menjivar beats Urijah Faber on 2/23, by basis of being a bigger win, he could get the next shot. Faber, because he’s had so many shots, is going to need a few wins in a row to get back. Raphael Assuncao beat Mike Easton, a good win, but the fight was boring and he broke his arm. But if Faber wins, Assuncao would be the only choice besides Wineland at this point. Funny thing is Faber beat both Assuncao and Wineland but is right now blocked from a shot for a while.

FLYWEIGHTS: This isn’t a deep field. Champion Demetrious Johnson defends against John Dodson on 1/26 in Chicago. The top contenders match is Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall on 2/2 in Las Vegas. The problem is that if Johnson wins, he’s already faced McCall twice (a draw and a win) and beaten Benavidez on 9/21 so that would be awfully quick for a rematch even though most consider Benavidez No. 2. If Dodson wins, he’ll no doubt face the Benavidez vs. McCall winner. But if the winners are Johnson and Benavidez, there may be no choice. The other contenders are John Moraga, Darren Uyenoyama and John Lineker, all of who need more wins and exposure to be considered genuine contenders. Kid Yamamoto joins this weight class later in the year, but he’s looked terrible ever since he came to UFC.

WOMEN: Ronda Rousey faces Liz Carmouche on 2/23 in Anaheim to kick the division off. Cris Cyborg is close to being signed, and is likely to get a title shot in her first match back. If not, Sara McMann or Miesha Tate would likely get the next shot. Sarah Kaufman would also be in line at some point, but would probably be kept away from McMann or Tate because of the risk/reward factor.